If the situation does take on a new face, and people and their loyalties changes as well, Modi will like a respectable exit for Amit Shah. Thus, Shah’s name might be included in the top four list of Modi’s Cabinet. If sources are to be believed, Shah’s first preference will be the home ministry, but the post is already occupied by party heavyweight Rajnath Singh; Modi might not find it that easy to remove him. In any case, if Shah becomes the next home minister of India, the Opposition’s attack on Modi government might increase. In Shah’s own opinion, his past might get in the way. In such circumstances, the best alternative in front of Modi will be to push Manohar Parrikar towards the organization and away from defense ministry – which means the party will try to weave strategies to make him the next party president. Only then will be it possible to make Shah the next defense minister, so that he can defend himself and Modi from the constant attacks from within the party.

It is said that Amit Shah had a big role to play in ousting Prashant Kishore from Modi durbar; it is the same Prashant Kishore who was once considered to be extremely close to Narendra Modi, and was an ace at devising election strategies. He has a significant part to play in Modi’s landslide win in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Sources say that after playing a role in such as historic win after 14 years, Kishore was expecting to be rewarded and wanted a role in the then-newly formed Niti Aayog. But just then Shah emerged on the horizon and Kishore was relegated to the wings from the Modi durbar. So just like Chanakya with his hair open and splayed, he made an entry into Nitish camp with the pledge that he will make Shah bite dust, and even succeeded in it. After the Bihar win, Prashant Kishore’s clout in political circles has increased. This Sunday, not only did he meet Arun Shourie, it is believed that he also had a secret meeting with Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi. It is said that regional satraps such as Mamata Banerjee and Naveen Pattanaik have also sent requests to meet Prashant Kishore. At the same time, Prashant has already promised Nitish Kumar that in the coming Lok Sabha elections in 2019, he will devise strategies to have Nitish Kumar as the prime ministerial candidate. On the other hand, promises have been made from Nitish’s side that he will send Kishore to the Rajya Sabha from the JD (U) quota. It is definitely Acchey Din for Prashant Kishore.

It is question that is rearing its head constantly, especially after the recent terrorist attack in Paris. Considered to be one of Europe’s largest secular countries, France has a population of about 47 lakh Muslims, who make for about 7.5 per cent of the country’s population. After the Charlie Hebdo incident in January, the French government is constantly trying to bring down fanatic Islamic groups. France’s investigative agencies had also submitted a report to the Senate after the Charlie Hebdo incident, where a doubt was expressed that in the recent past, more than 3,000 European youth had joined ISIS as a jehadi; of these more than half were French. The report also claims that the ISIS had also taken these young people to Syria and Iraq. In France alone there are 1,570 people who are under constant surveillance by the French government. It is believed that they may have connections with Syria. France’s investigative agencies also have a suspicion that more than 200 French jehadis has returned to the country after getting training from ISIS. More than 150 fanatics have been put behind bars in the past few days. The burqa has been partially banned there and the changing dynamics have made it tough for the Muslims there to find employment. Several French universities are exercising caution while giving them admissions. France’s struggle to emerge as a secular country in the backdrop of the recent terrorist attack is a real one

The electoral outcome of Bihar elections might still be under a thick mist, but BJP’s top commander Amit Shah seems to be sure that the NDA will win. Sources say that a few days ago, Shah presented a analytical report to Sangh’s top leadership and Modi concerning the Bihar elections, where he had claimed with all confidence that the NDA will form a government in the state with a clear majority. For this, Shah gave reasons marked by bullet points. For instance, Shah openly praised the party cadre, and said that of the 60,000 polling booths in Bihar, there are 10 party workers per booth, who will not only be bringing the voters to the booth, but will also ensure that their votes are cast properly. No less than 96 lakh party workers are working day and night to lure 6.8 crore voters of Bihar, and are also getting the unconditional support of 70,000 swayamsevaks from the Sangh family. On the other hand, Nitish is completely dependent on Lalu for his cadre. The party is also using the successful Haryana model of electoral campaigning in Bihar, and is bent of making it a 65 vs 35 battle. The Mahagathbandhan has in its favour about 35 per cent votes, which includes Muslims, Yadavs and Kurmis. Thus, Shah believes that the rest 65 per cent votes from other communities and castes will be in favour of the NDA or the BJP. Shah is confident that the state’s upper castes that makes for 15 per cent votes are behind the NDA; of these Paswan will bring in Dusadh (4 per cent); Upendra Kushwaha will get the 8 per cent Kushwaha votes; and Jitan Ram Manjhi will bring in 10-11 per cent Mahadalit votes. Which leaves the rest of 30 per cent backward castes, which are an amalgamation of 114 castes and communities, and these too are leaning towards the NDA. Apart from this, Shah feels the Modi factor is also working well in Bihar; his public rallies are seeing large attendance from women and the youth, which is a positive indication for the NDA. Shah also believes strongly that Nitish’s measured silence to the beef controversy, as well as contradictory reactions by Lalu-Raghuvansh have made the Hindus a tad displeased with the Mahagathbandhan. It is being said that Modi also agrees with this analysis by Shah. That is the reason he has agreed to take part in the 17 rallies of the last three stages.

Central Minister of Mines Narendra Singh Tomar, who is the apple of the eye for the top leadership among the Sangh and the BJP, has been given the responsibility to further sharpen the BJP’s election campaigning and its coordination. But he isn’t getting along with the other ministers from Bihar, which is why there is a feeling of anarchy and disorganization in the election campaign in the state. This is despite the bitter truth that compared to Lalu and Nitish, the BJP is sparing no effort or money in this election. On the other hand, Tomar is surprised that not just the Central ministers, politicians from the Bihar arm of BJP are ignoring his suggestions and directions. A few days ago Tomar complained about this to Shah; sources reveal that instead of scolding the leaders, Shah advised Tomar that he will have to change his own behavior to match the mood of Bihari leaders.

Sangh’s top leadership is extremely upset with BJP’s head Amit Shah. He may be given a dressing down after the Bihar elections. Reliable sources with the Sangh say that in the past five to six months, no less than half-a-dozen top leaders from the BJP have complained to the top brass of Sangh, namely Mohan Bhagwat, Duttatreya Hosbole, and Krishna Gopal, saying that Shah’s attitude towards party leaders reeks of haughtiness. One of the top BJP leaders went to the extent of saying that he has been asking for time for the past eight months, but Shah doesn’t seem to be interested. He has not been given the allotted time to meet Shah. Sources also say that the Sangh leadership is seriously considering its take on Shah; he may well see the party towards a win in Bihar, but his second stint as party president is under fire. Three new names are in the fray for party president’s post – Rajnath Singh, Om Mathur, and J P Naddha.

There are chances that the winter session of the Parliament, which is due to start next month, might be a loud one. Sources say that led by the Congress, the Opposition parties’ strategy is a clear one — just like the monsoon session, they will not allow the winter session to function. If the NDA wins in Bihar, it might become more aggressive and, along with the BJP, give a fitting reply to the Opposition. At the same time, on the Opposition’s agenda is Lalitgate; thus, on target will be Sushma and Vasundhara, along with Dadri and the beef controversy, the freedom of expression, NJAC Act, and the Sangh’s take on reservation. The Congress might also play up with angle of Lalit Modi saying that the Modi government has strategized on how Lalit Modi will spend the next eight to 10 years comfortable abroad. To frame Swaraj, the Congress has already made public P Chidambaram’s letter to his British counterpart, along with the latter’s reply. All in all, the Opposition’s attack on Sushma will be even harsher this time. The government’s strategists have also crafted a fitting reply and are armed to give an adequate counter-attack.

An old confidante of Congress-Gandhi family, Makhanlal Fotedar is coming out with a tell-all biography, The Chinar Leaves. The book promises to have a lot of revelations. Fotedar alleges that just a few days before her death, Indira Gandhi had said that her granddaughter Priyanka will prove to be her political successor. Is it a mere coincidence that a similar claim was made by party veteran leader Janardan Dwivedi in 2014, although the disclosure was put on the backburner? It is worth mentioning here that in April 2014, Dwivedi had revealed that a similar intention had been expressed by Rajiv Gandhi for his daughter. Some leaders in the Congress have also claimed that some Brahmin leaders in the party have a feeling that only Priyanka can take control of his sinking boat called Congress.

When he was the chief minister, Nitish Kumar had distributed bicycles to school-going girls in hundreds. The campaign showed positive results, and more and more girls expressed an interest in going to school. Thus, making the bicycle a base, Nitish designed several ambitious campaigns, and everything from TV ads to print campaigns was prepared. But the minute the campaign hit the public eye, the Samajwadi Party started to take undue advantage of it, and its party workers started reaching out to the public and saying, “This cycle is our election symbol.” When the media campaign about this cycle was being designed, Mulayam Singh was with Lalu and Nitish. But the Yadav-Singh matter forced him to change his loyalties, and now he is contesting the Bihar elections in collaboration with the NCP. Thus, as soon as Mulayam left the coalition, Nitish also had to retract his bicycle campaign.

The Supreme Court striking down the 99th Amendment and the National Judicial Appointments Commission (NJAC) Act as unconstitutional on Friday created a lot of brouhaha in political circles. It is worth mentioning here that through the act, the government had done away with the 22-year-old collegiums system. After the court’s decision, the media too went into an overdrive and people from the fraternity started to call former Law Minister Kapil Sibal. When his phone remained unanswered, the media people went and camped outside his house. OB vans of news channels also parked outside his residence. A troubled and worried Sibal then called up the editors of newspapers and news channels saying the bill hadn’t been passed when he was the law minister, and thus it should be Ravi Shankar Prasad whom they should get a byte from. Thereafter the media people made contact with the present Law Minister Sadananda Gowda, because even Ravi Shankar Prasad was unavailable. But Gowda made it clear to the media people that he will not give his reaction until he has had a talk with the prime minister and a senior minister in the government. By then the journalists had got a whiff of the fact that this same all-powerful minister had worked out the entire NJAC Act details, but who could ask him to give his views. The same minister, however, helped the journalists with their angst; sources say he told Ravi Shankar Prasad to present his views of the media. It was only after this that the journalists got a decent byte.