Hung Assembly for UP

September 14 2016

The My Mandate public opinion survey of UP that was recently conducted by Parliamentarian, BusinessWorld, and Janta ka Reporter doesn’t seem to give a clear mandate to any one party. It is worth noting that with a sample size of 25,000, this is the biggest such survey being conducted in UP. Compared to 25 per cent votes in 2012, the BSP might jump by 9 per cent votes this time; the party might win 169 seats with a percentage of 34 votes. The BJP can be seen making a quantum leap; while it had to sit satisfied with just 15 per cent votes, this time the vote share might jump to 30 per cent. From 47 seats of last time, the BJP might register a win in 135 seats this time. UP’s young chief minister Akhilesh seems to be losing a lot of ground. With 29 per cent votes in 2012, the SP got 224 seats for itself. This time, the SP’s vote percentage has slipped to 24 per cent and it is speculated that it might only get 74 seats this time. If you look at who the people of UP would like to see as the chief minister, Mayavati is leading the race with 28 per cent votes. Akhilesh is on number two with 25 per cent votes; the third position is surprisingly being held by Varun Gandhi, with 23 per cent votes. Although the BJP has officially not announced its chief ministerial candidate in UP, Varun Gandhi has shocked people by getting 53 per cent votes despite many other names in the fray. This time, law and order might become the biggest electoral issue with 29 per cent votes. What is also surprising is that leaving behind heavyweights such as Govind Ballabh Pant, Sucheta Kriplani and Hemvati Nandan Bahuguna, Mayavati has emerged as the most successful chief minister of UP with 32 per cent votes. The same survey has called Narendra Modi the best prime minister of independent India with 35 per cent votes. At the same time, the youth of the state has crowned Akhilesh Yadav as the youth ideal with 30 per cent votes. Mayavati may not have indulged in politics regarding the farmers, but she has emerged as the biggest farmers’ leader with 30 per cent votes, as against farmer leader Ajit Singh, who got 12 per cent votes. The My Mandate survey of UP might just serve as an eye-opener for the election brawls that are about to begin.

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